Exbookie wants to help the Players week 1

[ACE-ACE]

Cant start a new season without knowing where we been!



TWO WAYS I BET...ACTION UNDER $800 AND INVESTMENT $2000 -$5000
never $801-$1999

...............ACTION...................INVESTMENT............TOTAL

2004-05 ...36-34 +$400......... 25-16 +$28,400...............+$28,800.00

2005-06...63-51 +$14,035......36-18 +$44,181................+$58,216.00

2006-07...62-71 -$8,942........19-22 -$11,390..................-$20,332.00

2007-08...37-37 -$2389..........26-26 +$5,857..................+$4,471.00

2008-09..45-42 +$1,117.........22-18 +$6,182.................+$7,299.00

2009-10 ..57-45 +$7800......... 20-15 +$9,910...............+$17,710.00
2009-10 contest.....................2-0 +$29680..........Total +$47,390.00

2010-11 44-39 +$2420.00...... 23-10-3 +$27,491.00....67-49-3 +$29,911.00


TOTAL ACTION .......344-319 +$25,772.00

TOTAL INVESTMENT.173-125 +$142,741.00 THE ONES THAT COUNT 58%


TOTAL...................... 517-434 +$168,513.00 54%



As you see diff/ways for Diff/players
Why therx?...because as a exbookie that took a lot of money from you players…this is my way of giving back!!! The RX forum has done a lot for me…Docsports saw me back in 2005 on this forum and give me a part time job. At the time it look like I could help other players win also…never in my mind that I could also make some money to help with my Taxes and get into some contest….
So you could say it really more fun to give a gift than to receive one? Generosity has a way of returning to the giver….

Started this thread early so the player have a place to talk and share what they think of week One….
Preseason is something I bet in the past….but…you have to know what each team is doing…some don’t try to win the game…Its about the cuts…who’s in and who’s out….My plan now is not to bet perseason….but….to watch and get ready for week one.

More to come
Ace-Ace

 

[Rawhide]

Good Luck this season ACE!!!!!!

Love pigskin.....and making $$$$ tailing your pics and learning why is the best part!

One thing I will say about betting pre season.....every time the word is out that" the coach is gonna play easy and no starters" that team seems to cover.

Hit it hard and good luck in the big contest!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Looking back on old papers of the last 7 year...I see that there was 4 thing that got me the job at docsports.....it was the year 2004-05 the playoffs that year 22-3 in the playoff and superbowl 88%
28-4 in the last 32 bets posted 87%....same year I bet the motor city bowl U-conn vs Toledo....I posted a $5000 bet on Toledo -3.5...someone that I help make a lot of money told me about a fix on the game...get off on Toledo I was told and bet U-conn....I change my bet on this forum to U-conn +3.5...posted a $10k bet...biggest play to date that I have bet (it was more but that was between me and my walet)....funny thing about that game 90% of the bets was on Toledo and the line Never moved off of -3.5!!!! this thread will not be found on therx I ask that it would be taking off the forum. but that one game change my life. The key is to give and help others...in return you may be shock what you get in return..... the 4th was the Washington post had this in there paper talking about fixed games and my record here is the link
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...1202171_2.html

alway a good read....

put it all together

record
fixed game
helping other
washington post

and I became Allen Eastman at docsport

thanks to this forum that let me posted my way of capping NFL.


best to all

Ace
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[ACE-ACE]

something to think about

" Does money bye you happiness" ?

for me its about keeping score...once you have money you dont need it any more....

"the game is more inportant than the money"

and the friend you hang out with and your love ones

trust me Money will not be the thing they will remember you by.
people will forget what you said,
people will forget what you did,
but people will never forget how you made them feel

 

[ACE-ACE]

wahington post link does not work....here is the write-up

As the NFL season reached its final weeks, the Redskins were down, nearly out. David Hinson, a New York Giants fan who lives in the District, thought he could capitalize on this with Redskins fans who were still willing to root with their wallets. A bet. Or several.

"When your team is playing," Hinson said this week at ESPN Zone, "everybody who's got that team has a lot of mouth. It's very easy to neutralize that: You tell 'em to put up or shut up."

So for weeks, he bet on the Giants and other Redskins opponents.
The Redskins went on a winning streak. "I took a beating," Hinson said.
He's still ready to bet any Redskins fan on this week's playoff game -- but not against the current 9 1/2 -point spread. "That's crazy," Hinson said.
Then there's the flip side of the coin.

Even at the team's nadir, District resident Paul Holland was proclaiming that the Redskins were Super Bowl-bound. He was taking all comers, at $200 a game.

"I've won $800 so far," Holland said, "and I'm going to keep right on going with them to the Super Bowl."

In the beginning, there was the handshake. Then there was the neighborhood bookie. Then casinos. And finally, the Internet and its offshore gambling Web sites. It's all illegal (except in Nevada), but nevertheless, as pro football builds toward its annual zenith, betting on pro football -- and the Redskins -- is in a parallel delirium.

"You've got all of the frenzy that is usually spread out among 14 or 16 games now condensed into four games," said Kevin Smith, spokesman for BetonSports.com, one of the largest Internet sports books, based in Costa Rica. "And with the Super Bowl, people who may not bet normally on football will bet on the Super Bowl, and we start to see a little bit of that now."

Besides betting winners and losers, online bettors can make "proposition" bets, right down to, "Will a player with odd or even jersey number score the first TD?" or, "Which team will enter the Red Zone [inside the 20-yard line] first?" or even, "Will the yardage of the first punt be an odd or even number?"

Las Vegas, widely thought to be the headquarters of sports gambling, is gradually ceding ground to the Internet because casinos find that the roughly 5 percent profit margin doesn't compare to a row of slot machines or blackjack tables, experts said. Still, Nevada handled $10.5 billion in sports bets in 2004, the biggest chunk from football, according to David G. Schwartz, director of the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and author of a book on Internet gambling.

Schwartz said the offshore books took in $8 billion in bets, perhaps half from the United States. "It seems like Americans are getting more and more comfortable with [sports] betting," Schwartz said, "and gambling in general." Only Utah and Hawaii do not have some form of legalized gambling, although only Nevada has legalized sports gambling.

For those who don't have ready access to Las Vegas, Reno or Tahoe, the old neighborhood bookmaker is still alive and flourishing, police say. Last month, Fairfax County police searched safe deposit boxes of a suspected bookie and recovered nearly $350,000 in cash, court records show.

The 49-year-old D.C. man allegedly told an undercover officer that "being a bookie was the only thing he did for a living" and that he learned the trade from his father, according to a court affidavit. He supposedly gave the officer tips on how to start in the business and then drove off in a green Jaguar. Gambling and money-laundering charges are pending.

Montgomery County police recently broke up an operation that handled as much as $500,000 in bets during a football weekend, Detective Michael Herbert said. In October, Alvin J. Kotz, 70, of Potomac was sentenced to three years for gambling and money laundering, records show.

"A lot of people see it as a victimless crime," Herbert said. "We see the other side of it." He said husbands spend the family paycheck, and in a current case, a gambler embezzled several hundred thousand dollars from a company to pay his debts.

Herbert and "Ace," a former bookie from the Midwest, said times are slower for bookies during the playoffs because there are fewer games. Ace, who now makes his sports wisdom freely available through an Internet forum called "The Prescription," said people increased their bets during the playoffs but not enough to make up for the lack of games.
For those who don't know bookies, there is always the Internet. The government has not prosecuted individual bettors, but it has gone after Web site operators. In a 2001 case in New York, an American based in Antigua returned for trial and was convicted and imprisoned. Evidence at his trial showed his Web site had taken in nearly $5 million in bets in 15 months.

Smith noted that BetonSports is publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange and is in a place where sports betting is legal. Last year, BetonSports took in $1.1 billion from almost 10 million bets, according to its annual report.

"Bob the Barber," who works in Fairfax City, said he uses bookies and offshore Web sites. "I think more people are betting offshore," Bob said, "because bookmakers used to be big crooks. If you had a big win on the Super Bowl, they'd take off, and you didn't get paid."

Bob, who spoke on condition that he not be identified, generally bets about $300 a game but ups it to $500 for the playoffs. He's taking the Redskins tomorrow. "I can't believe they're getting 9 points," he said, arguing that Seattle has not beaten a quality team and already lost to the Redskins once this season. [The point spread moved late yesterday to 9 1/2 points.]

The point spread is set by oddsmakers and adjusted in response to what gamblers are betting on a game. If a bettor chooses the favorite, the team has to win by more than the spread to collect any money. A bettor who picks the underdog can win even if the team loses -- as long as it loses by less than the spread

Last week, in full public view, Ace laid out his analyses and bets for the week and then won an incredible six wagers without a loss, raking in more than $11,500. This week, he is putting $1,000 on the Seahawks.

Seattle had a week off, "and historically, [teams that have a week off] win 80 percent of the time, while point spreads only matter in 16 percent." He also pointed to Seattle's superior offense and its fewer penalties and turnovers as reasons for giving the 9 1/2 points. But at the top eight offshore books, Ace noted, more bettors have been taking Washington and the points, 59 percent to 41 percent.

The Indianapolis Colts remain the favorite to win the Super Bowl with every online book, most of them making the Colts about even to go all the way, followed by Seattle and New England.

The Redskins are the longest shot of the remaining eight teams in every sports book. Bodog.com has the Redskins at 19-1, BetonSports.com at 26-1 and sportsbook.com at 33-1.


Tom Jackman Washington Post.
​

 

[Donkwin47]

Good luck this year, Ace. Kill it just like last year!

 

[DERDATIZ]

if preseason does not take play and it starts on week 1 or two....teams that are rebuilding will not stand a change!!!

The way I capper will change also....let's hope it dont go down to the last min's....my feeling it will not

Lockout may help Packers repeat

Green Bay's injured veterans get a chance to heal, value of its free agents decreases



Mike Tanier
ESPN Insider

When it comes to the NFL lockout, whatever does not kill a team will only make its playoff chances stronger.


The lockout is not hurting all teams equally. Some teams entered the offseason with a long roster wish list or a whole new coaching staff and system to integrate. Others had the equivalent of a bunker full of canned goods when the lockout struck: a balanced roster, established coaches and few needs.


The following teams were the most prepared for an offseason of relative inactivity, or were at least better prepared than their division rivals:

Green Bay Packers


Doctors and physical therapists are not on lockout, which means injured Green Bay veterans such as Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Nick Barnett and others have had plenty to do during the labor doldrums. Grant says his ankle feels "awesome," Finley is expected back and Barnett is fully recovered from wrist surgery and willing to renegotiate the contract that will pay him $11.5 million over the next two years. With so many important players scheduled to return, the Packers can move forward while standing still.


The truncated free-agency period has kept opponents from nibbling away at the edges of Green Bay's roster. While Cullen Jenkins will probably leave once free agency starts, the market for players like John Kuhn, Daryn Colledge and other midtier starters will be much slower after the draft than it would have been before the draft.

New York Giants


Like the Packers, the Giants can get much better just by getting healthier: The returns of wide receiver Steve Smith and guard Rich Seubert could solve some of the team's biggest problems. A shortened free-agency season will also lower the free-agent market for a player like Mathias Kiwanuka because teams that might gamble on a veteran pass-rusher coming off an injury in a typical year are more likely to draft a safer, cheaper alternative this year.


While New York treads water, its NFC East foes must place lengthy offseason agendas on hold. The Washington Redskins are no closer to resolving the Donovan McNabb or Albert Haynesworth situations than they were in December. The Dallas Cowboys have a new defensive coordinator, more needs than the draft can fill and are quickly realizing that idle hands are Dez Bryant's workshop. The Philadelphia Eagles are in better shape than the Cowboys or Redskins, but they hoped to trade Kevin Kolb for a player or pick who could fill a major hole on their offensive line or in the secondary. The longer the lockout lingers, the more likely the Eagles will enter the season with two quarterbacks, but a big need elsewhere on their roster.

Seattle Seahawks


The NFC West was the punch line of professional sports last year, and the Seahawks' opponents are not getting any better by twiddling their thumbs. New San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has major decisions to make, like who his quarterback will be. The Arizona Cardinals have a new defensive coordinator and a crisis at quarterback -- the team hoped to bring in a Marc Bulger-type to groom a youngster, but any veteran they sign will have to speed-read the playbook to get ready. The St. Louis Rams have plenty of young talent, but also have a new offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, with a complicated system to install. Instead of taking a step forward in 2011, the Rams may have to settle for standing firm.


Seattle, by contrast, has a stable coaching staff and a roster full of veterans. If anybody deserves a few extra weeks off to heal his aches and pains, it's Matt Hasselbeck. The Seahawks could easily ride a 6-0 division record into the playoffs next year while their foes try to settle quarterback controversies or figure out new playbook terminology.

Pittsburgh Steelers


The Steelers generally sit out the free-agency season, so an inactive March is nothing new for them. No team in the league boasts a more stable offensive and defensive philosophy. Veterans cleaned out their lockers in February very certain what their roles and assignments will be in 2011. That will save the Steelers valuable practice time once the hitting starts.


Like New York and Seattle, Pittsburgh has the advantage of seeing several division foes stuck in a holding pattern. The Cincinnati Bengals have made no progress on the Carson Palmer situation; in fact, the relationship between Palmer and the organization appears to be getting worse. Dick Jauron replaces Rob Ryan as the Cleveland Browns' defensive coordinator, bringing a very different philosophy that Browns defenders must adjust to. And the Baltimore Ravens are stuck in their usual spot -- half a step behind the Steelers, but with no real chance for sudden improvement.




Hi ACE,

Hope you have been doing good. You replyed with this message earlier this when i asked about your thoughts before the lockout was lifted. I'm still wondering how you think your 411 system along with the other factors you use to identify that line that you will place your wager on will be affected after this crazy free agent signing? How will you take into account that the arizona has signed 50+ players that were not on the team last year? The same goes for philly? Their secondary is so much improved, hell their d SHOULD B so improved! Do you feel that this year isn't that much different and that i'm making to much of this change to the nfl? Do you use some stats from last year?

With this question's, i'm still planning on being on your list as i was last year. I'm going to practice a little more restrain than last year and play only your system plays. As i have played with you the last 2 years and REALLY do trust your picks and respect your knowledge.

your thoughts are appreciated!!!!!



​

 

[ACE-ACE]

myline and the 411 system has to use data from last year and a little of this years perseason.....we take players out and added players in...the ones that count QB...RB...WR....so on.....this makes for a lot of work....after week 3 its all about this years stats with this years players...it will be alot easyer at that time looking at excel sheets....make the job a cake walk......rookie are still rookie...they have no wt.!!!!...players that are send from team "a" to team "b".....those are the ones that have to be aded to the numbers

my guts tell me the new COACHES in a few team dont have a change to get there team up to what I would say a good game....... 1st two week should be easy!!! than most of the system will take over.

Its going to be a good year

 

[In2Win]

Bol this season ACE hope the winning continues for you this season

 

[ACE-ACE]

week 1 and week 2...I will use last year stats and what I see in perseason...After than its all about this year stats....The hard part is to take players out(with stats) that no longer playing and add the stats to teams that players have joined

if you know which coach dont have time to get there time together in the short time...
the lockout hurt players also with no time to workout....

spend the time and look at everything...than and only than the 1st two week will be very easy to pick

than in week 3 its all about the system 100%



offseason I copyright the 411 system and put a symbol that will tell everyone what it means.... its all about 411=information....its all about the formula (only two knows how it works)

and its all about the hard work that goes into each week.

best to all this season to everyone that loves to cap football

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

the 1st week of preseason should tell the story for a few team

look close at
CLEVE
TENN
OAK
CAR
SF
all those team have 1st year coaches....those team are not trying to win there 1st game...hell....its like getting to know each other 1st (players and coach) before they know what to do.....two weeks dont make a team.

when something throws a wrench in the timing,there will be an unsettling moment,following by restructuring.

if you have to bet preseason
play
GB-1.5
MIN+3
DEN+3
NYG 1.5
N.O.-3

Its a bet against teams that has no time to come together...you should win 3 or 4 of them


Ace

 

[irishcapper]

any season win total over/unders this year? i think you had one last year.

 

[ACE-ACE]

any season win total over/unders this year? i think you had one last year.

I bet it as soon as it came out Cinn under 7.5..... But one it's at 7 and 6.5.... The value has gone away.... All I know is they will not get 8 game this year

 

[Hamilbet]

5.5 right now

 

[3pointdog]

Aug 09 18013 CIN BENGALS SEASON WINS o6½+195
11:59 PM 18014 CIN BENGALS SEASON WINS u6½-245

Look at those odds!!!! Just cant lay -245 as easy as it looks..........

 

[3pointdog]

Ace i was thinking of a futures play. what do you think of Atlanta to win the SB at +1200 odds?? I really like this team this year.

I had GB last year at +800 in September which worked out ok.....

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace i was thinking of a futures play. what do you think of Atlanta to win the SB at +1200 odds?? I really like this team this year.

I had GB last year at +800 in September which worked out ok.....

you are getting good odds on a team that can do it.... out of 32 teams 10 of them could and ATL is one of them...so as I see it you are getting better than 10-1

 

[3pointdog]

thanks Ace....its a play

just win!!

 

[Willye]

Damn that toledo game was that long ago... Time flies.....

 

[phantom888]

you are getting good odds on a team that can do it.... out of 32 teams 10 of them could and ATL is one of them...so as I see it you are getting better than 10-1

in your opinion, what are the other 9?

thanks